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Summit 2 - Final Day Projections


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If you haven’t read it yet, the projections before the tournament started can be found here

With the last day of Summit upon us, all groups are done and so is the first round of winners. Here’s the updated placement probabilities.

1 2 3 4 6 8 12 16
MkLeo 0.56192 0.69597 0.77437 0.83369 0.91497 0.95829 1.00000 1.0
Nairo 0.13316 0.36447 0.53241 0.64623 0.77535 0.82142 1.00000 1.0
Samsora 0.10992 0.25555 0.38772 0.51209 0.75025 0.88690 1.00000 1.0
Marss 0.05523 0.12877 0.20313 0.27434 0.50719 0.71726 1.00000 1.0
Maister 0.04393 0.18494 0.37854 0.54218 0.81537 0.92035 1.00000 1.0
Light 0.04111 0.15939 0.29363 0.40012 0.56998 0.65115 1.00000 1.0
Dabuz 0.03987 0.11292 0.20013 0.29478 0.56593 0.77786 1.00000 1.0
Tweek 0.01231 0.06834 0.12666 0.26101 0.39608 0.50528 0.87161 1.0
MuteAce 0.00118 0.01208 0.05413 0.10062 0.30656 0.57121 1.00000 1.0
zackray 0.00096 0.01060 0.02541 0.05305 0.14515 0.29442 0.79093 1.0
ESAM 0.00029 0.00376 0.01039 0.02529 0.08268 0.22970 0.61369 1.0
Tea 0.00011 0.00282 0.01130 0.04750 0.12658 0.47865 0.84784 1.0
VoiD 0.00001 0.00034 0.00173 0.00594 0.02723 0.10554 0.38631 1.0
Leffen 0.00000 0.00003 0.00027 0.00209 0.00819 0.02215 0.12839 1.0
RFang 0.00000 0.00002 0.00017 0.00082 0.00660 0.03003 0.20907 1.0
Armada 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00025 0.00189 0.02979 0.15216 1.0

What Changed

What Didn’t Change

In essence, being in the losers bracket sucks in terms of your chances to win the whole tournament. Who would’ve thought? The only player in the losers bracket who has a better chance to win the whole thing is Tweek, who edges out MuteAce.

Contact me at stu2b@statsmash.io or @stu2b50 on Twitter

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