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Biggest Upsets in Smash Ultimate So Far


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Ally vs Bocchi

Everyone loves an underdog winning against all odds. Smash is, however, a game where the better player, for the most part, wins, and there is little variance (our system has a similar Brier score to 538’s NBA model).

But, sometimes the stars align and the 1% happens, and sometimes we’re just wrong. Regardless, you won’t want to miss when those moments happen.

So, what are the biggest upsets in Smash Ultimate’s (brief) history? Let’s find out.

10. そも (1409) vs Cosmos (1797) | 9.6%

Umebura SP3, Pools

Japan is a scary and dark place, where many brave warriors from the west have drowned in pools. It’s like one of those areas in an RPG where the starting enemies are suddenly higher level than you.

As indicated in our region strength analysis, Japan is actually the region with the highest Elo density in the world, and this certainly contributed, as Cosmos falls to… well, Google Translate tells me their name is “Somo” (?)…

9. Tweek (1992) vs The Great Gonzales (1602) | 9.5%

8. Wizzrobe (1629) vs Tweek (2024) | 9.2%

Smash’N’Splash

A Tweek double-header, as he falls first to what we consider to be the #3 Melee Player… in Ultimate, one of the few still championing Wolf.

Then a loss to yet another Tristate Palutena player, the Great Gonzales, ending his run at Smash’N’Splash, and probably his running for #1 PGR. Keep those Palus away from Tweek!

7. Leon (1388) vs Nairo (1795) | 8.7%

Suplex City Smash, Winners Round 1

Nairo was the first of Leon’s upset train, taking down the at the time #6 player in the world with Bowser of all characters. Of course, he would later be known for almost 9-stocking Cosmos, as going all the way to the finals at Defend the North. But his first victory was the most surprisinig to our system, giving him a 8.8% chance to defeat Nairo.

Nairo would, however, go on to avenge himself later in the tournament. In fact, Suplex City is Nairo’s only tournament victory so far.

6. WDBHtGP (1322) vs Sinji (1733) | 8.5%

SMASH at The Paramount, Losers Round 3

The Pacman master of New York is eliminated by someone whose name is pronouncable only by eldritch lords and people having strokes.

5. ByranZ (1383) vs Myran (1801) | 8.3%

Get On My Level 2019, Pools

Myran, after a strong showing at Frostbite put him in the top 10, has been on a downward spiral in both Elo and placements. But he still holds a respective 1801 Elo. Unfortunately, his downward trend will continue as a 8.3% loss to BryanZ ends his winners run at GOML.

At least he didn’t drown in pools.

4. Light (1842) vs Dill (1395) | 7%

UltiMania, Losers Round 1

No video of this one, but apparently Dill won 3-0 over Light, eliminating him from this 137 entrant tournament in MA. He only had a 7.1% chance to do so!

Dill is, apparently, sponsored by Ho3K.

Here’s the smash.gg link at least

3. Ruther (1333.7) vs Samsora (1792) | 6.6%

Come to Papa 3, Pools

After solidly 2-stocking Ruther with Peach, Samsora… uh… switches to Bayonetta, then loses two in a row in a series that was… definitely a series of Smash Ultimate, performing about as well as he does on Nairo’s stream when he switches characters.

Apparently… Samsora is projected to face Myran earlier in losers…

Myran just said to me that he’s the best player on Florida

I’m going to mop the floor with him if we meet in bracket this weekend at Come to Papa

— eU Samsora (@Samsora_) April 27, 2019

What are you doing Samsora? I guess the 6.6% chance Ruther wins includes the worlds where Samsora trolls.

2. Frozen (1468) vs Tweek (1944) | 6%

Collision 2019, Winners Semi-Final

I will preface that Frozen is really underrated here due to the system’s bias towards wins against big names at big stages, but regardless he was given a minute 6.1% chance to beat the at-the-time #1 player in Ultimate. Of course, Tweek was, to some extent, not exactly playing his A game, but this was a shocking result for one of Tristates many excellent Palutena players.

And it wouldn’t be the last time he has a bad encounter with one…

1. Ally (1923) vs Bocchi (1347) | 3.5%

AON Smash Ultimate #027, Winners Quarters Finals

This is one everyone knows, the game that propelled Bocchi to a (perhaps unfortunate) stardom. Our Elo system gave Bocchi a 3.5% chance to win, given the massive difference between her barely above baseline 1300 Elo and Ally’s 1923, at the time good for 5th best in the world. Using Isabelle, to boot.

Least upset-like matches?

Just for fun, let’s look at some of the unsurprising match results

Turns out when you pit the best players in the world against their pool opponents, it doesn’t go well for the pool players.

…unless you’re playing Samsora, apparently, when Myran already fell into losers.

Contact me at stu2b@statsmash.io or @stu2b50 on Twitter

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